The competing jobs predictions come as the federal Coalition prepares to push for a delay in parliamentary consideration of the emissions trading scheme until after the UN conference in Copenhagen in December, on the basis of its potential impact on employment.
But, as reported in The Weekend Australian, it is likely that one option to be put to shadow cabinet and the Coalition partyroom this week will be to offer to negotiate a bipartisan position with the Government on the emission reduction targets the Government should consider as part of any new international agreement, while delaying the emissions trading legislation. The Greens and senators Nick Xenophon and Steve Fielding have not dismissed the possibility of a delay.
The Coalition has said it could support emissions-reduction targets at least as strong as the 5 to 25 per cent of 2000 levels advocated by the Government by regulating on energy efficiency measures and storing carbon in vegetation and soils, alongside an emissions trading scheme.
Opposition emissions trading spokesman Andrew Robb told the Victorian Liberal Party state council yesterday that the Government’s scheme was “in no shape to be passed and the vote must be deferred until after Copenhagen”, when Australia could assess the promises made by trading competitors.
The Business Council of Australia and other business groups have backed the Government’s argument that the legislation needs to be passed now in the interests of investment certainty.
Treasury modelling for the Government found the emissions trading scheme would have only a small net effect on total employment in the long term, but heavy industry has warned of the upheaval that could be caused as the economy adjusts to the new cost on carbon.
The research released by The Climate Institute, commissioned from energy sector consultants McLennan Magasanik Associates (MMA), found the states to benefit most from clean energy project proposals were NSW (4921 jobs) South Australia (4586) and Victoria (4346).
The planned projects – including geothermal, wind, solar, biomass and wave power – would predominantly benefit regional areas. By far the biggest investments are planned for wind power projects, followed by geothermal.
“This research shows that if climate change and renewable energy legislation passes through parliament without being weakened, it will help drive the industrial shift that can put Australia at the front of a global energy boom which already employs more people worldwide than those directly employed in oil and gas,” Climate Institute chief executive John Connor said.
Mr Robb said the Government should delay its legislation until it had assessed the short-term impacts on employment in different sectors of the economy.
“If passed in its current form, the biggest structural change in our history would be more a product of blind faith and pig-headedness than rigorous analysis,” he said.