(FORTUNE Magazine) – A disturbing consensus is emerging among the
scientists who study global warming: Climate change may bring more
violent swings than they ever thought, and it may set in sooner. Lately
John Browne, the CEO of BP, has been jolting audiences with a list of
proposed solutions that hint at the vastness of the challenge. It aims
at stabilizing the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere at
about double the pre-industrial level while continuing economic growth.
To do that, carbon emissions would have to be reduced ultimately by
seven gigatons a year. A gigaton, or a billion tons, is even bigger
than it sounds. Eliminating just one, argues Browne, would mean
building 700 nuclear stations to replace fossil-fuel-burning power
plants, or increasing the use of solar power by a factor of 700, or
stopping all deforestation and doubling present efforts at
reforestation. Achieve all three of these, and pull off four more
equally large-scale reallocations of capital and infrastructure, and
the world would probably stabilize its carbon emissions.
There’s just one catch: Even change on this vast scale might not stop global warming