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  • Melting glaciers likely to have ‘minor’ role in future sea-level rise

    “Ocean warming could also be a contributor to Sea-Level Rise.”

    Melting glaciers likely to have ‘minor’ role in future sea-level rise

    Last Updated: Tuesday, August 13, 2013, 14:55

    Washington: A new study has suggested that melt-water that trickles down through the ice is likely to have a minor role in sea-level rise compared with other effects like iceberg production and surface melt.

    Previously, scientists had feared that melt-water could dramatically speed up the movement of glaciers as it acts as a lubricant between the ice and the ground it moves over.

    A team led by scientists from the University of Bristol found through the results of computer modelling, based on fieldwork observations in Greenland that by the year 2200 lubrication would only add a maximum of 8mm to sea-level rise – less than 5 per cent of the total projected contribution from the Greenland ice sheet.

    In fact in some of their simulations the lubricating effect had a negative impact on sea-level rise – in other words it alone could lead to a lowering of sea-level.

    Lead author, Dr Sarah Shannon, from the University of Bristol, said that this is an important step forward in our understanding of the factors that control sea-level rise from the Greenland Ice Sheet.

    She said that their results showed that melt-water enhanced lubrication will have a minor contribution to future sea-level rise.

    Shannon asserted that future mass loss will be governed by changes in surface melt-water runoff or iceberg calving.

    Previous studies of the effects of melt-water on the speed of ice movement had assumed the water created cavities at the bottom of ice masses. These cavities lifted the ice slightly and acted as a lubricant, speeding up flow.

    This theory had led scientists to think that increased melt-water would lead directly to more lubrication and a consequent speeding up of the ice flow.

    The scientists found that no matter whether more melt-water increases or decreases the speed of ice flow, the effect on sea level is small.

    Shannon said that her team found that the melt-water would lead to a redistribution of the ice, but not necessarily to an increase in flow.

    The findings have been published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

    ANI

  • Typhoon Utor displaces thousands in the Philippines

    bbc.co.uk

    13 August 2013 Last updated at 06:52 GMT

    Typhoon Utor displaces thousands in the Philippines

    Residents commute along a flooded stretch of road during heavy rain in the suburbs of Manila on 12 August 2013 Most classes in Manila and Luzon were cancelled on Monday

    Thousands of residents in the northern Philippines were left homeless after a powerful typhoon hit on Monday, officials say.

    At least two people died and 11 were missing in the wake of Typhoon Utor, the national disaster agency said.

    The storm made landfall in the north of the main island of Luzon early on Monday, bringing winds of up to 210kp/h (130 mph) and heavy rain.

    It is forecast to head towards southern China on Tuesday.

    “Trees have fallen down, roofs have been torn off houses, electric poles and electric towers have collapsed,” Reynaldo Balido, from the national disaster agency, told Agence-France Presse news agency.

    Typhoon Utor displaced more than 100,000 people from three cities in 14 provinces, the national disaster agency said in a statement.

    Rescuers on Tuesday were still working to clear blocked roads to remote towns directly hit by the typhoon in Aurora province, located north-east of the capital, Manila, according to reports.

    Most classes on Monday were cancelled in Manila and in Luzon. Some domestic flights on Monday were also cancelled, as well as passenger and ferry trips.

    The typhoon is one of 20 forecast to hit the Philippines this year, officials say.

    The country has been hit by two devastating storms in recent years – in 2011, Typhoon Washi left about 1,300 people dead when it struck northern Mindanao and in 2012 Typhoon Bopha left more than 1,000 people dead.

    Typhoon Utor is forecast to move across the northern part of the South China Sea and make landfall in China’s Guangdong province on Wednesday night.

    China’s maritime authority on Tuesday has already issued the second-highest weather alert warning, state-run Xinhua news agency reported.

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  • Liberal Preferences and their Impact on Green Prospects in Melbourne ( Antony Green )

    « My Campaign Diary – Week 1 | Main

    August 14, 2013

    Liberal Preferences and their Impact on Green Prospects in Melbourne

    Life for the Greens at the 2013 election just got tougher with the Liberal Party’s decision to change its policy on preferences.

    In the past the Liberal party has ignored philosophical differences and taken the entirely strategic decision of recommending preferences for the Greens ahead of Labor.

    It was a policy of using my enemy’s enemy as a useful tool in the heat of political battle.

    Labor was forced to direct resources to fighting the Greens in its own seats because of the Liberal decision.

    Now that the Greens win seats from Labor on Liberal preferences, but the Liberal Party has never received a Green preference recommendation in return, the Liberal Party has chosen to make preference decisions based on philisophy rather than strategy.

    The Federal Liberal Party will now follow the policy of its Victorian branch at the 2010 state election of treating the Greens as a party ideologically to the left of Labor, and therefore recommend preferences to Labor ahead of the Greens.

    It is the only logical position the Liberal Party can take if it wants to argue that the Greens are a bigger danger to the Australia than Labor.

    The consequence of this decision is that Greens MP Adam Bandt will find it much harder to retain his seat of Melbourne, gained from Labor on Liberal preferences in 2010. On my estimates, Bandt will need to increase his first preferences vote from the 36.2% he won at the 2010 election to above 40% if he wants to win re-election.

    The deision also rules out any remote chances the Greens had of winning other inner-city seats such as Batman in Victoria and Grayndler and Sydney in New South wales.

    Why this is the case is easily shown by the following table of Liberal preference flows in Labor-Green contests at the 2010 Federal election, and under the reversed Liberal preference recommendations at the 2010 Victorian election.

    Distribution of Liberals Preferences – 2010 Federal and Victorian Elections Compared
    Federal Election Victorian Election
    Electorate % Prefs to Greens Electorate % Prefs to Greens
    Batman (VIC) 80.86 Brunswick 33.70
    Grayndler (NSW) 73.55 Melbourne 33.63
    Melbourne (VIC) 80.86 Northcote 29.09
    Richmond 35.73

    On a technical note, the Federal preference data is actual preference flows derived on from ballot papers with a Green first preference, where the Victorian data is extracted from the formal distribution of preferences, and so includes some other minor party votes in the totals. However, the data is still broadly comparable.

    In Melbourne at the 2010 Federal election, Labor led on the first preferences with 38.1% of the vote, Bandt finished second with 36.2%, the Liberals third on 21.0% and four other candidates had 4.7% between them.

    This translated into the Greens on 56.0% after the distribution of preferences to Labor 44.0%.

    But if the Liberal preference flow had been only 33.6%, the figure in the state seat of Melbourne later in the year, then the 2010 Federal result after preferences would have been Labor 53.7%, Greens 46.3%.

    That is a 9.7% swing from Green to Labor generated entirely by the switch in Liberal preferences.

    Let me assume the above change in preference flows, and also assume that the Liberal Party poll the same vote as in 2010.

    If this is the case, then the only way Bandt can overcome the switch in Liberal preferences is to increase his first preference vote by at least 3.7% at the expense of Labor, effectively to poll above 40% on first preferences.

    Only once have the Greens ever polled above 40% in a state or federal election, and that was the 2009 Fremantle state by-election when there was no Liberal candidate.

    Polling above 40% will be tough for Bandt at an election where the general Green vote is likely to fall. Given the strong concentration of Green support in inner-city seats, a national change in first preference vote against the Greens of 1-2% is likely to be amplified into a larger change in electorates with a high Green vote like Melbourne.

    In Bandt’s favour, he has has the advantage of building a personal profile, the incumbency factor that works in the favour of sitting members. He can also tap into resentment amongst left-wing Labor voters of the government’s shift to the right on policies such as asylum seekers.

    The Liberal decision has ended Green prospects elsewhere in Australia, and made life much tougher for the Greens in Melbourne.

    Posted by on August 14, 2013 at 10:09 AM in Federal Politics and Governments,

  • The five excuses marketeers use for failing to promote sustainability

    The five excuses marketeers use for failing to promote sustainability

    Many US companies are increasing their sustainability, but are reluctant to promote their efforts, writes Tensie Whelan

    Online marketing books in a bookshop

    Marketers need to stop excuses for failing to promote sustainability Photograph: Jeff Blackler/Rex Features

    While a growing number of companies are increasing the sustainability of their own operations and supply chains, many – particularly US companies – are surprisingly timid about promoting their efforts. I hear the same excuses over and over again from marketing professionals and brand managers. They boil down to five themes:

    Customers aren’t asking for it

    Generally, companies point to surveys showing that only 10% to 15% of consumers actively search out sustainable products. Fair enough. But average consumers also don’t generally demand a new kind of chip, soda or smartphone. Instead, marketing professionals usually develop campaigns to convince us we want those new things. Why should sustainability be any different?

    When we give it to them, they don’t want it

    Some companies say they tried to promote a more sustainable product and people didn’t buy it, so clearly there’s no interest. When I look at these examples, they usually contain one of several common mistakes: either the product was inferior, it cost more, it got buried among the regular offerings or its marketing was boring, confusing or inadequate.

    Sustainability is boring, too complicated and too expensive

    It can be all of these things, but it doesn’t have to be. For example, Rainforest Alliance’s video about the common man trying to protect rainforests, Follow the Frog, went viral with 1.3m views, 25m tweets and a TED award. The move toward more local, artisan or authentic products can be marketed in a cool and interesting way.

    It’s risky

    By trying something new, we might lose customers. It’s unusual to see a company lose market share by focusing on sustainability, although inadequate marketing can certainly reduce potential gains. Both McDonalds and PG tips (a UK brand of tea owned by Unilever, which also owns Lipton) increased their sales after promoting Rainforest Alliance-certified tea and coffee.

    We need to communicate our core attributes

    Sustainability isn’t core. Yes, people need to know that your product tastes good, for example. But in order to break out of the pack and tap into an accelerating consumer shift toward buying from companies that reflect their values, we need to make sustainability a core attribute.

    A 2011 study identified a big consumer shift from mindless to mindful consumption, which author John Gerzema, president of Brand Asset Consulting, calls the “spend shift.” People who want to patronise businesses that reflect their values, so-called “spendshifters,” make up 55% of the US population, according to the study. Between 2005 and 2009, the key brand attributes that grew in importance for American consumers include kindness and empathy, which increased by 391%; friendliness, up by 148%; high quality, up by 124%; and socially responsibility, up by 63%.

    Marketing professionals should be finding innovative ways to sell sustainability by tapping into trends such as growing interest in community, in knowing where products come from and in supporting artisans and by using technologies to bring unique stories to life.

    I’m not necessarily talking about using the words ‘sustainable,’ ‘socially responsible’ or ‘ethical’. Instead, I’m talking about focusing on the core attributes of sustainability, such as the ability to track the product back to a place and producer of origin, and making them fun, cool and relevant to consumers. If marketers have created a multibillion-dollar business out of carbonated sugar water, they should be able to proactively and creatively figure out how to sell products and services that are actually good for people, communities and the planet. No more excuses.

    Tensie Whelan is the president of the Rainforest Alliance

  • Doctors warn of health consequences of NSW mine planning changes

    Doctors warn of health consequences of NSW mine planning changes

    Environmental lobby group says state government plan to put economic benefits first could result in unsafe air pollution

    Mining

    Doctors believe economic benefits from mining should not be at the expense of people’s health. Photograph: Reuters

    New South Wales‘s proposed changes to mine approvals would loosen air quality standards and could affect people’s health, a doctors’ environmental lobby group says.

    Comments on proposed amendments to environmental planning policy by the NSW government closed on Monday after being made public a fortnight ago.

    The changes proposed include emphasis on economic benefits of mines over social and environmental costs and changes to the way air pollution is measured.

    Doctors for the Environment Australia, a group of medical doctors who focus on environmental policies, said they were alarmed that the changes could leave some towns with unsafe levels of air pollution.

    The changes would allow mines to meet a yearly average of air quality rather than a daily average which a spokesman for the doctors’ group, Dr Ben Ewald, said could mean some towns would experience air quality that put people’s health at risk and that mining companies would not be penalised.

    “It is like driving at 160km/h and being pulled over and saying, ‘It’s all right, the average speed per year is 20km/h and the car sits in the garage most of the time,” Ewald said.

    “The mining companies would be able to pollute as much as they like and still comply with the yearly average.”

    A consent authority would have to approve a mining project if it was “significant” to the state and met basic standards, with the most emphasis being placed on economic benefits.

    In their submission, the doctors’ group said positive economic benefits were outweighing social and environmental considerations.

    “Mining may adversely affect other industries such as agriculture and tourism, and adverse impacts include both social and economic costs,” the submission said.

    “Therefore concentrating principally on expected economic benefits from mining, distorts decisions affecting communities in a way that is out of line with community expectations and good long-term management of resources.”

    The submission ends with the doctors strongly recommending the amendments be rejected and with a list of substantial modifications.

    These include considering the cost of developing a resource when approving a mine; including damage to people’s health and the environment in cost-benefit analysis and having a 24-hour air quality standard.

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  • Sinkhole Swallows Part of a Building at a Resort in Florida

    Sinkhole Swallows Part of a Building at a Resort in Florida

    Gerardo Mora/Getty Images

    A hole 60 feet across and 15 feet deep opened at the Summer Bay Resort in Clermont, Fla., late Sunday night.

    By
    Published: August 12, 2013
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    In the realms of fantasy near Walt Disney World, disaster rides abound. But no one would buy a ticket for the real-life sinkhole adventure that swallowed part of a building in nearby Clermont, Fla., early Monday and sent hundreds of vacationers out into the night.

    A guest flagged down a security guard shortly after 11 p.m. to say that a window in her villa “had just broken, inexplicably,” said Paul Caldwell, the president of the resort, Summer Bay. “As he stood talking to her, two or three more windows broke.” The guard began evacuating the building and those around it, as did emergency crews that arrived soon after.

    At midnight, he said, the central section of the three-story building collapsed into the sinkhole, estimated to be as much as 60 feet across and 15 feet deep. “Everyone was out, no one was injured,” Mr. Caldwell said. But the 14-year-old building “probably will be a total loss.”

    Amy Jedele, a holistic practitioner and counselor from Denville, N.J., was staying at a building connected by a breezeway to the sinking building. When she and her fiancé, Darren Gade, heard screams and noises, they thought the commotion might be coming from a television. After hearing sirens, they stepped outside and saw the ground sinking from Building 104. “There was just no earth underneath it at all,” Ms. Jedele said. “It was just hovering.” Then sections of the building tumbled into the growing hole.

    Tommy Carpenter, the manager for the Lake County Emergency Management Division, said, “Sinkholes are, unfortunately, a reality of living in Florida,” which is rich in karst — formations that include layers of soluble rock, mainly limestone, under the soil.

    In late February, a man was killed when his bedroom was swallowed by a sinkhole beneath his home in Seffner, Fla., outside Tampa. His body was never recovered.

    Randall Orndorff of the United States Geological Survey said that in the area between Tampa and Orlando, often called “sinkhole alley,” four other sinkholes had been reported since the spring. But none was this destructive.

    Commercial development and agricultural concerns could be accelerating the problem, Mr. Orndorff said. “Once you start paving those parking lots and roads, putting up houses,” he said, “all that water runs off and is collected in ditches and storm drains, and it has to go underground in, basically, a torrent.” And the torrents cut channels in the weak rock, he said.

    Development requires pumping enormous amounts of water out of the ground, which can contribute to the area’s vulnerability. “We have changed the environment,” Mr. Orndorff said. “Are we increasing the number of sinkholes? We don’t know. But as we develop into