The Istanbul-Marmara region of northwestern Turkey with a population of more than 15 million faces a high probability of being exposed to an earthquake of magnitude 7 or more. To better understand the processes taking place before a strong earthquake at a critically pressurized fault zone, a seismic monitoring network was built on the Princes Islands in the Sea of Marmara off Istanbul under the auspices of the Potsdam Helmholtz Centre GFZ together with the Kandilli Earthquake Observatory in Istanbul. The Princes Islands offer the only opportunity to monitor the seismic zone running below the seafloor from a distance of few kilometers.

The now available data allow the scientists around GFZ researcher Marco Bohnhoff to come to the conclusion that the area is locked in depth in front of the historic city of Istanbul: “The block we identified reaches ten kilometers deep along the fault zone and has displayed no seismic activity since measurements began over four years ago. This could be an indication that the expected Marmara earthquake could originate there,” says Bohnhoff.

This is also supported by the fact that the fracture zone of the last strong earthquake in the region, in 1999, ended precisely in this area — probably at the same structure, which has been impeding the progressive shift of the Anatolian plate in the south against the Eurasian plate in the north since 1766 and building up pressure. The results are also being compared with findings from other fault zones, such as the San Andreas Fault in California, to better understand the physical processes before an earthquake.

Currently, the GFZ is intensifying its activity to monitor the earthquake zone in front of Istanbul. Together with the Disaster and Emergency Management Presidency of Turkey AFAD, several 300 meter deep holes are currently being drilled around the eastern Marmara Sea, into which highly sensitive borehole seismometers will be placed. With this Geophysical borehole Observatory at the North Anatolian Fault GONAF, measurement accuracy and detection threshold for microearthquakes are improved many times over. In addition, the new data also provide insights on the expected ground motion in the event of an earthquake in the region. Bohnhoff: “Earthquake prediction is scientifically impossible. But studies such as this provide a way to better characterize earthquakes in advance in terms of location, magnitude and rupture progression, and therefore allow a better assessment of damage risk.”

America’s Busiest Airports at Risk from Sea Level Rise

Entrance to Battery Park flooded, NYC DOT truck seen submerged, blocking entrance after early closure on Oct. 29. CREDIT: New York Governor Andrew Cuomo View full size image

During Hurricane Sandy, the ocean tried to take back the marshlands under New York’s LaGuardia Airport. Parts of the airport’s east-west runway and tarmac disappeared under Hurricane Sandy’s storm surge. The severe flooding was due to a combination of factors: Sea-level rise caused by global warming, a high tide, and the storm’s savagery, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

New York’s major airports are among the 12 coastal hubs at risk of future storm flooding linked to sea level rise, according to a draft federal report, Climate Central reported. As sea levels inch higher at the coast, storms will cause more damage by pushing further inland, pounding critical infrastructure such as airports, power plants, highways and bridges. Twelve airports have runways within 12 feet (3.6 meters) of current sea level, according to the draft National Climate Assessment report. The list includes:

• Ft. Lauderdale Int’l (FLL)
• Honolulu International (HNL)
• John F. Kennedy Int’l (JFK)
• LaGuardia (LGA)
• Miami Int’l (MIA)
• New Orleans Louis Armstrong Int’l (MSY)
• Newark Liberty Int’l (EWR)
• Oakland International (OAK)
• Philadelphia Int’l (PHL)
• Ronald Reagan Washington National (DCA)
• San Francisco Int’l (SFO)
• Tampa International (TPA)

Read more: National Climate Assessment

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WASHINGTON (AFP) – The World Bank on Wednesday warned that severe hardships from global warming could be felt within a generation, with a new study detailing devastating impacts in Africa and Asia.

The report presents “an alarming scenario for the days and years ahead — what we could face in our lifetime,” said World Bank President Jim Yong Kim.

“The scientists tell us that if the world warms by two degrees Centigrade (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) — warming which may be reached in 20 to 30 years — that will cause widespread food shortages, unprecedented heat waves, and more intense cyclones,” he said in a statement.

An update of the Bank’s November “Turn Down the Heat” climate report, the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and Climate said there was evidence in the past seven months that previous projections for greenhouse gas emissions had been too low.

Now, it said, there was a growing chance that warming will reach or exceed four degrees Celsius in this century “in the absence of near-term actions and further commitments to reduce emissions.”

The United Nations has proposed the goal of limiting global warming to two degrees Celsius from pre-industrial levels, setting for the first time measurable targets to curb greenhouse-gas emissions.

International negotiations are aimed at reaching an agreement on that limit by 2015, with the pact due to take effect by 2020.

In the report, commissioned by the World Bank, scientists from around the world focused on the risks of climate change to development in Sub-Saharan Africa, Southeast Asia and South Asia, home to some of the world’s poorest people.

They looked at the likely impacts from varying degrees of global warming in a range of areas, including agriculture, water resources, coastal erosion and vulnerability to flooding.

The report noted that the current level of warming — 0.8 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial levels of the 18th century — already had increased drought in Sub-Saharan Africa and coastal erosion in Southeast Asia.

The impact of two-degree warming, expected by the 2040s, would have grave and sweeping consequences, it said.

Unusual and unprecedented heat extremes would hammer the three regions, cutting crop production and causing widespread food shortages.

Many regions would see 20 percent declines in water availability and, for South Asia, disturbances in the monsoon could put water and food resources “at severe risk.”

Rachel Kyte, World Bank vice president for sustainable development, said the development lender has been working with some of the world’s burgeoning cities to mitigate the risks of global warming, for example helping Manila and Ho Chi Minh City on flood mitigation.

She said the Bank was looking at a major initiative preparing cities to absorb investment for infrastructure projects that will help them deal with the impact of global warming, such as flood protection, and the report, by detailing risks, should encourage much-needed private investment.

“When the investment community understands risks, then they always flip that into an opportunity in terms of investment vehicles,” she said in a conference call.

Kyte said there was “a fundamental shift” in thinking at the World Bank that has put climate change at the heart of its development strategy.

The World Bank doubled its investment in climate adjustment to $4.6 billion in fiscal year 2012 ending June 30 from $2.3 billion the prior year, she said.

The report stressed that the risks were rising and a solution urgent, but there was a chance to avoid the worst of the crisis.

“It is not too late to hold warming near two degrees Celsius, and build resilience to temperatures and other climate impacts that are expected to still pose significant risks to agriculture, water resources, coastal infrastructure, and human health,” the report said.

“The window for holding warming below two degrees Celsius and avoiding a four degrees Celsius world is closing rapidly, and the time to act is now.”

Oxfam welcomed the report but said the World Bank “must ensure its own lending meets the needs of the people who are most vulnerable to climate change.”

Greenpeace pushed for the World Bank to stop funding fossil-fuels projects, which add to global warming.

“Bold action is needed from all governments, and the World Bank must lead the way by shifting all its energy financing from fossil fuels to renewables and energy efficiency,” it said.

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