Author: Neville

  • Climate change poses grave threat to security, says UK envoy

    Climate change poses grave threat to security, says UK envoy

    Rear Admiral Neil Morisetti, special representative to foreign secretary, says governments can’t afford to wait for 100% certainty

    Flooding in Thailand in 2011

    Flooding in Thailand in 2011. Photograph: Narong Sangnak/EPA

    Climate change poses as grave a threat to the UK’s security and economic resilience as terrorism and cyber-attacks, according to a senior military commander who was appointed as William Hague’s climate envoy this year.

    In his first interview since taking up the post, Rear Admiral Neil Morisetti said climate change was “one of the greatest risks we face in the 21st century”, particularly because it presented a global threat. “By virtue of our interdependencies around the world, it will affect all of us,” he said.

    He argued that climate change was a potent threat multiplier at choke points in the global trade network, such as the Straits of Hormuz, through which much of the world’s traded oil and gas is shipped.

    Morisetti left a 37-year naval career to become the foreign secretary’s special representative for climate change, and represents the growing influence of hard-headed military thinking in the global warming debate.

    The link between climate change and global security risks is on the agenda of the UK’s presidency of the G8, including a meeting to be chaired by Morissetti in July that will include assessment of hotspots where climate stress is driving migration.

    Morisetti’s central message was simple and stark: “The areas of greatest global stress and greatest impacts of climate change are broadly coincidental.”

    He said governments could not afford to wait until they had all the information they might like. “If you wait for 100% certainty on the battlefield, you’ll be in a pretty sticky state,” he said.

    The increased threat posed by climate change arises because droughts, storms and floods are exacerbating water, food, population and security tensions in conflict-prone regions.

    “Just because it is happening 2,000 miles away does not mean it is not going to affect the UK in a globalised world, whether it is because food prices go up, or because increased instability in an area – perhaps around the Middle East or elsewhere – causes instability in fuel prices,” Morisetti said.

    “In fact it is already doing so,” he added, noting that Toyota’s UK car plants had been forced to switch to a three-day week after extreme floods in Thailand cut the supply chain. Computer firms in California and Poland were left short of microchips by the same floods.

    Morisetti is far from the only military figure emphasising the climate threat to security. America’s top officer tackling the threat from North Korea and China has said the biggest long-term security issue in the region is climate change.

    In a recent interview, Admiral Samuel J Locklear III, who led the US naval action in Libya that helped topple Muammar Gaddafi, said a significant event related to the warming planet was “the most likely thing that is going to happen that will cripple the security environment, probably more likely than the other scenarios we all often talk about”.

    There is a reason why the military are so clear-headed about the climate threat, according to Professor John Schellnhuber, a scientist who briefed the UN security council on the issue in February and formerly advised the German chancellor, Angela Merkel.

    “The military do not deal with ideology. They cannot afford to: they are responsible for the lives of people and billions of pounds of investment in equipment,” he said. “When the climate change deniers took their stance after the Copenhagen summit in 2009, it is very interesting that the military people were never shaken from the idea that we are about to enter a very difficult period.”

    He added: “This danger of the creation of violent conflicts is the strongest argument why we should keep climate change under control, because the international system is not stable, and the slightest thing, like the food riots in the Middle East, could make the whole system explode.”

    The military has been quietly making known its concern about the climate threat to security for some time. General Wesley Clark, who commanded the Nato bombing of Yugoslavia during the Kosovo war, said in 2005: “Stopping global warming is not just about saving the environment, it’s about securing America for our children and our children’s children, as well.”

    In the same year Chuck Hagel, now Obama’s defence secretary, said: “I don’t think you can separate environmental policy from economic policy or energy policy.”

    Morisetti said there was also a direct link between climate change and the military because of the latter’s huge reliance on fossil fuels. “In Afghanistan, where we have had to import all our energy into the country along a single route that has been disrupted, the US military have calculated that for every 24 convoys there has been a casualty. There is a cost associated in bringing in that energy in both blood and treasure.

    “So to drive up efficiency and to use alternative fuels, wind, solar, makes eminent sense to the military,” he said, noting that the use of solar blankets in Afghanistan meant fewer fuel resupply missions. “The principles of delivering your outputs more effectively, reducing your risks and reducing your costs reads across far more widely than just the military: most businesses would be looking for that too.”

    Morisetti’s former employer, the Ministry of Defence, agrees that the climate threat is a serious one. The last edition of the Global Strategic Trends analysis published by the MoD’s Development, Concepts and Doctrine Centre concludes: “Climate change will amplify existing social, political and resource stresses, shifting the tipping point at which conflict ignites … Out to 2040, there are few convincing reasons to suggest that the world will become more peaceful.”

    Schellnhuber was also clear about the consequences of failing to curb global warming. “The last 11,000 years – the Holocene – was characterised by the extreme stability of global climate. It is the only period when human civilisation could have developed at all,” he said. “But I don’t think a global, interconnected world can be managed in peace if climate change means we are leaving the Holocene. Let’s pray we will have a Lincoln or a Gorbachev to lead us.”

  • Rudd rewards backers, Crean departs

    Rudd rewards backers, Crean departs

    Switched to Rudd: Bill Shorten.Switched to Rudd: Bill Shorten. Photo: Andrew Meares

    Last-minute Rudd backer Bill Shorten has been rewarded in the new look ministry, adding school education to his existing workplace relations portfolio.

    Kevin Rudd unveiled his ministry in Newcastle on Monday as former trade and regional Australia minister Simon Crean – who was tipped to secure a spot in Mr Rudd’s new frontbench – announced he was quitting politics at the upcoming election.

    Simon Crean's election challenge soon overshadowed the adoption apology.Former Labor leader Simon Crean to quit politics. Photo: Andrew Meares

    Mr Shorten, who dramatically changed his support from Julia Gillard to Mr Rudd before the leadership ballot last week, will now have responsibility for the school funding reforms.

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    While Brendan O’Connor, a Gillard supporter, loses the immigration portfolio to Tony Burke, he will take an element of Mr Shorten’s old responsibilities – employment – along with skills and training.

    Other Rudd backers have also been rewarded in the new-look ministry.

    Carbon tax policy change will have "significant budget implications": Climate Change Minister Mark Butler. New Climate Change Minister Mark Butler. Photo: Alex Ellinghausen

    Joel Fitzgibbon has been made Minister for Agriculture, while Ed Husic and Alan Griffin have been made parliamentary secretaries to the Prime Minister, with Mr Griffin also taking on the role of Cabinet Secretary.

    The reshuffle comes after a raft a ministers – including Greg Combet, Stephen Conroy, Peter Garrett, Craig Emerson and Joe Ludwig – quit their positions in the wake of the Labor leadership ballot last Wednesday.

    Chris Bowen has already been sworn in as Treasurer and Anthony Albanese as Deputy Prime Minister following the resignation of Wayne Swan.

    Mr Albanese will take on responsibility for the NBN as Minister for Communications and Broadband. He retains his infrastructure and transport portfolio.

    “This is a large set of responsibilities for a man with a prodigious work ethic and a heart for all Australia,” Mr Rudd said.

    Mr Rudd told reporters in Newcastle on Monday that the core task of government was to “keep the economy strong”.

    “I have assembled today a strong economic team, one with vastly more experience and vastly more competence than those we face opposite,” he said.

    Along with Mr Bowen as Treasurer, Penny Wong keeps her position has Finance Minister.

    Assistant Treasurer David Bradbury picks up financial services and superannuation from Mr Shorten.

    Another key Rudd backer, Kim Carr, rejoins cabinet with responsibility for innovation, industry, science, research and higher education.

    In another significant change, with Mr Burke, the former environment minister, taking on immigration, Mark Butler swaps mental health for climate change, environment, heritage and water. Mr Burke will, however, keep the arts portfolio.

    Another key Rudd supporter, Richard Marles will enter cabinet as the Minister for Trade – taking over from Mr Emerson, who is also quitting politics.

    Mr Marles had earlier quit his role as Parliamentary Secretary for Foreign Affairs after the March leadership ballot.

    On Sunday, Fairfax Media reported that the announcement of the new cabinet and outer ministry was delayed as Mr Rudd was not able to fill some crucial roles as quickly as he hoped. Labor sources said a number of ministerial offers were refused and efforts were poured into coaxing some key Gillard ministers back into cabinet.

    On Monday, Opposition Leader Tony Abbott said Mr Rudd’s new look team “is not even the B team, it’s the C team”.

    In a surprise move, Home Affairs and Justice Minister Jason Clare has been moved to the outer ministry and loses the Cabinet Secretary role.

    Mr Clare, who has been touted as a future Labor leader, was only recently promoted to cabinet.

    Kate Lundy – a strong support of Ms Gillard – loses the prized sports portfolio to Senator Don Farrell. Ms Lundy keeps multicultural affairs and will be minister assisting for the digital economy (a new role) as well as minister assisting for innovation and industry.

    The new ministry will be sworn-in at Government House at 2pm Monday.

    Crean quits politics

    When announcing the line-up, Mr Rudd acknowledged Mr Crean’s departure and his contribution to politics.

    The former Labor leader joined Stephen Smith, Ms Gillard, Mr Garrett, Mr Emerson and Mr Combet in deciding not to contest the upcoming election.

    Mr Crean has been on the backbench since March this year, when he unsuccessfully called on Mr Rudd to challenge then prime minister Ms Gillard.

    Mr Crean, who served as opposition leader between 2001 and 2003, stood in last week’s ballot for the deputy leadership, but lost to Mr Albanese.

    Mr Rudd said he had spoken to Mr Crean on Sunday.

    “He has been an extraordinary leader in our movement for a long time,” Mr Rudd said.

    Mr Crean said he had turned down an offer to serve in Mr Rudd’s new cabinet.

    “I welcomed that, but I indicated to him I had come to the decision not to contest the next election and he should take that into account,” he told Fairfax Radio on Monday.

    “I left him essentially the option to use the position to regenerate or if he needed me to plug a gap until the election I was happy to.”

    Six women in cabinet

    Three women have been promoted to cabinet in Mr Rudd’s reshuffle.

    Julie Collins joins cabinet as Minister for Housing and Homelessness, and Catherine King will retain the regional portfolio.

    Jacinta Collins also joins cabinet as Minister for Mental Health and Ageing.

    The promotion of Ms King, Ms Collins and Senator Collins bring the total number of women in cabinet to six, with Senator Wong, Jenny Macklin and Tanya Plibersek.

    ”This will the largest number of women in the Australian cabinet in history, and the same for the ministry at large,” Mr Rudd told Channel Seven on Monday morning.

    Asked if he made the appointments because he feared a backlash after he deposed Australia’s first female prime minister last week, Mr Rudd replied: ”These are women who are strong, professional, highly experienced and they are there exclusively on their merit.”

    Ms Macklin keeps families, disability reform and indigenous affairs and Ms Plibersek adds medical research to her responsibility for health.

    with AAP

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/rudd-rewards-backers-crean-departs-20130701-2p5zl.html#ixzz2XkO2LeCR

  • Sunny days to return after wettest June in six years Date

    Not down to climate change “EH”, Deniers please note.

    Sunny days to return after wettest June in six years

    Date
    July 1, 2013 – 7:45AM

    Melanie Kembrey

    A landslide which hit Harris Park station in Sydney's west on Sunday night.A landslide which hit Harris Park station in Sydney’s west on Sunday night. Photo: Carlos Furtado

    Sunshine has returned to Sydney but not before a week of rain caused a variety of issues over the weekend, including a land slip that caused a brick wall to collapse onto a train station in Sydney’s west, and the fall of an enormous fig tree to fall in Hyde Park on Saturday afternoon.

    It is expected to take several days to clear debris caused by a landslide from rail tracks at Harris Park.

    For the first week of July residents can expect an average of nine hours sunshine per day and virtually no rain

    The tracks and platform at Harris Park station were covered with debris after the retaining wall gave way about 5.50pm on Sunday.

    Here comes the sun: A ferry makes it way south as a rainbow tries to break through after heavy rainstorms.Here comes the sun: A ferry makes it way south as a rainbow tries to break through after heavy rainstorms. Photo: Jenny Evans

    At approximately 5.50pm an embankment at Harris Park station collapsed due to heavy rain.
    No one was injured during the incident and rail staff  and emergency services attended the scene.

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    At approximately 8.40pm another segment of the embankment wall collapsed onto the station, causing the suspension of all services stopping at Harris Park. Buses were operating between Harris Park and Parramatta and Harris Park and Granville, although on Monday morning some train services were again stopping at the station.

    Parramatta local area command Acting Inspector James Littler said nobody was injured and it is believed nobody was on the platform when the embankment fell.

    Force of nature: a large tree has fallen over in Sydney's Hyde Park.Force of nature: A large tree was uprooted in Sydney’s Hyde Park. Photo: Wolter Peeters

    ‘‘It’s quite a significant landslide. It’s basically gone on the platform and covered the tracks,’’ Acting Inspector Littler said.

    ‘‘It’s very fortunate there wasn’t a train at the time and the best thing is that nobody has been injured.’’

    The fragments of concrete, trees and fencing partially buried two of the station’s four rail lines.

     Centennial Park was still abuzz with joggers, walkers and dogs this morning despite the heavy rain.Out and about: Rain didn’t put off walkers and dogs in Centennial Park. Photo: Jenny Evans

    It could take several days to clear the debris from the tracks.

    Dave Wright, from the Transport Management Centre, said the landslip was causing minimal delays for train services on Monday morning.

    ‘‘The impact is only for people getting on or off at Harris Park, which is a smaller station between two bigger stations,’’ Mr Wright said.

    Harris Park train station has had a landslide over night. Click for more photos

    Landslip at Harris Park Railway Station

    Harris Park train station has had a landslide over night. Photo: Carlos Furtado

    • Harris Park train station has had a landslide over night.
    • Harris Park train station has had a landslide over night.
    • Harris Park train station has had a landslide over night.
    • Harris Park train station has had a landslide over night.
    • Harris Park train station has had a landslide over night.
    • Harris Park train station has had a landslide over night.
    • Harris Park train station has had a landslide over night.
    • Harris Park train station located has had a landslide over night.
    • Harris Park train station located has had a landslide over night.
    • Harris Park train station located has had a landslide over night.

    ‘‘Some trains are still stopping at Harris Park, but not every train, and some trains will go through without stopping.

    ‘‘Delays are relatively minimal at this stage but as the morning progresses we might see some additional delays.’’

    Bureau of Meteorology forecaster Olenka Rudewych said there had been more than 240 millimetres of rain in Sydney during the past nine days, making up about 77 per cent of this month’s total rainfall.

    But there will finally be a chance to drain the dirty clothes overflowing from laundry baskets with rain expected to clear early Monday morning and the rest of the week due to remain mostly sunny.

    “Generally we expect showers to clear by early Monday morning and the rest of the week should remain mostly sunny with a return to dry conditions,” Ms Rudewych said.

    The bad weather will take a rain check with the sunniest week since May or April now expected, according to Weatherzone senior meteorologist Brett Dutschke.

    “For the first week of July residents can expect an average of nine hours sunshine per day and virtually no rain,” Mr Dutschke said.

    “There has been a total of just seven hours of sunshine, an average of an hour per day, the cloudiest week since February 2009.”

    State Emergency Service spokeswoman Sue Pritchard said volunteers were looking forward to a rest after responding to 1211 calls for help, including 600 in the Sydney metropolitan area, since strong rain and wind started to batter the state’s east coast last Saturday.

    Seventeen of the callers required assistance for animals or people trapped in flood waters and most of the others were about roof damage, fallen trees and minor flooding.

    “I think all of our volunteers deserve a rest this week. They have been fantastic of course. A lot of them work full time, they don’t even come home, they just go straight from work and out in the field at night,” Ms Pritchard said.

    In Hyde Park on Sunday, nobody was injured when a hills weeping fig toppled over but there were reports that two mothers and their young children narrowly missed being hit.

    A City of Sydney spokesman said a crane would remove the tree on Monday and it would be replaced with another one.

    It’s not just the emergency service workers who are looking forward to the sunshine, reptiles have been stuck on heat pads and giraffes in their dens at Taronga Zoo.

    The zoo’s spokesman Ben Gibson said workers would be out in force raking and sweeping once the rain stopped.

    “The zoo attendance was down due to the weather but we still had huge amount of schools kids coming in for excursions who braved it with ponchos and umbrellas,” Mr Gibson said.

    Car wash workers are also restocking soap supplies in the hope that customers will return with the sunshine.

    Crystal Car Wash Cafe manager Lina Toutonji said she had experienced a stressful week.

    “It’s been really dead. There has hardly been any customers at all, one day there was just no one,” Ms Toutonji said.

    “Because of that a lot of the guys who work here have left their job during the last week. They just can’t rely on this type of business when consistently raining for 10 days and there are no customers.”

    Weatherzone.com.au is owned by Fairfax Media, publisher of this website.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/environment/weather/sunny-days-to-return-after-wettest-june-in-six-years-20130630-2p533.html#ixzz2XkLMUwVf

  • Effects of ocean acidification on iron availability to marine phytoplankton

    Effects of ocean acidification on iron availability to marine phytoplankton

    Published 29 June 2013 Newsletters and reports , Science Leave a Comment
    Tags: , ,

    Dalin Shi is currently a professor at the State Key Laboratory of Marine Environmental Science, Xiamen University, China. His research focuses on the biogeochemical cycling of trace metals in the ocean and their roles in the global carbon and nitrogen cycles.

    About one-third of the anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) released into the atmosphere dissolves in the ocean, increasing the partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2) and lowering the pH in surface water. These changes in seawater chemistry, commonly referred to as ocean acidification, will likely have significant effects on marine phytoplankton, which are responsible for about half of the contemporary global primary production (Field et al., 1998) and form the basis of all marine food webs.

     

    In vast areas of the oceans, the vanishingly low concentration of iron (Fe) often limits the growth of marine phytoplankton (Martin and Fitzwater, 1988). It is known that the bulk of Fe in the ocean is chelated by organic compounds (Rue and Bruland, 1995), and that the availability of Fe to phytoplankton depends largely on its chemistry in seawater, which is highly sensitive to changes in pH (Shaked and Lis, 2012). We therefore examined the effect of ocean acidification on the complexation of Fe by organic ligands, and, hence, its bioavailablility to phytoplankton. In the presence of organic complexing agents with various chemical functionalities, the bioavailability of dissolved Fe to model species of diatoms and coccolithophores was observed to decline at low pH. This effect is quantitatively explained by the decrease in the free Fe concentration, Fe’, in seawater with decreasing pH and is thus not a physiological response of the organisms.

    The extent to which changes in pH affect a ligand’s ability to bind Fe depends on the number of protons (H+) released upon dissociation of Fe from the ligand (Y). The dissociation reactions can be written in a simplified but general form as:

    FeY + 3H2O = Fe(OH)3 + HxY + (3–x)H+

    The number of protons released varies between 3 (e.g., for the tetracarboxylate EDTA) and 0 (e.g., for the bis-catecholate azotochelin), and depends on the acidity of the binding moieties, the affinity of the ligand for other metals such as Ca2+ and Mg2+. Consequently, the effective binding strength of ligands that release more protons is more sensitive to changes in pH. In field manipulation experiments, a slower rate of Fe uptake by Thalassiosira weissflogii, with decreasing pH, was observed in both coastal and oceanic Atlantic surface water samples where Fe was bound to natural Fe-chelating ligands (Figure). This result is in agreement with the laboratory data, though the magnitude of the pH effect on the uptake of Fe was modest, suggesting that little of the Fe was bound to carboxylic acid moieties or other ligands that release protons upon dissociation in the field samples (Shi et al., 2010).

    We note that the decrease in Fe bioavailability caused by the change in Fe chelation at low pH is only one of several potential effects that ocean acidification may have on Fe limitation of phytoplankton in the oceans. For example the rate of dissolution and precipitation of Fe oxides particles, through thermal or photochemical mechanisms, may also change and, perhaps, compensate for the increase in Fe complexation.

    References

    Field, C., et al. (1998). Primary production of the biosphere: Integrating terrestrial and oceanic components. Science 281:237-240.
    Martin, J. and Fitzwater, S. (1988). Iron-deficiency limits phytoplankton growth in the Northeast Pacific subarctic.
    Nature 331:341-343.
    Rue, E. and Bruland, K. (1995). Complexation of iron(iii) by natural organic-ligands in the central North Pacific as determined by a new competitive ligand equilibration adsorptive cathodic stripping voltammetric method. Mar Chem. 50:117-138.
    Shaked, Y. and Lis, H. (2012). Disassembling iron availability to phytoplankton. Front Microbiol. Chem. 3:123.
    Shi, D., et al. (2010). Effects of ocean acidification on iron availability to marine phytoplankton. Science 327:676-679.

    Shi D., Xu Y., Hopkinson B. M. & Morel F. M. M., 2013. Effects of ocean acidification on iron availability to marine phytoplankton. SOLAS NEWS 15, Summer 2013: 8-9. Article.

  • Editorial: A war on climate change

    Editorial: A war on climate change

    June 30, 2013   |
    12 Comments
    Rick Nease/Detroit Free Press
    By The Detroit Free Press Editorial Board
    • Filed Under

    Climate change is surely the looming disaster of our time.

    Scientists say it’s inevitable that sea levels will rise 2 1/2-6 1/2 feet — sufficient to endanger or wipe out many cities. One scientist believes that in the long-term, 69 feet of sea level rise is inescapable.

    And the source of the swelling oceans — rising temperatures — will stress the nation’s food system, while the increasing number of devastating storms will place an economic burden on a nation reeling from disaster to disaster, patching its wounds without effecting meaningful change.

    It’s tempting to dismiss these projections as hysterical. That life as we know it could change so dramatically, so quickly, seems impossible. But on this topic, the scientific community (if not the political one) speaks with one voice.

    Despite the preponderance of evidence — rising temperatures, powerful storms, droughts and fires — no significant action has been taken that would limit the impacts of climate change. Until last Tuesday.

    President Barack Obama delivered a bold proposal for a set of regulatory changes that could turn the U.S. from its headlong rush into disaster. This is the course our nation must take if we are to preserve our way of life, and we’re energized to see the president championing such vital reform.

    Obama’s plan calls for carbon pollution standards for new and existing power plants, efficiency standards that would reduce carbon pollution by at least 3 billion cumulative metric tons by 2030, fuel economy standards for heavy duty vehicles, the reduction of greenhouse gases and the development of a comprehensive methane strategy. It also provides federal support for local investment to mitigate the worst impacts of climate change.

    The plan is sure to impact the way Americans live — or at least the way we pay bills. But that’s preferable to the alternative.

    It won’t be easy to turn the nation from habits we’ve indulged for decades, though the true costs of capping carbon emissions are still unknown, and likely won’t be as severe as naysayers’ predictions. (Remember: Cap and trade was offered during the George H.W. Bush adminsitration as a “conservative” alternative to harsher regulation; now the nation’s right wing villifies it as a kind of commie profit-killer. Truth is often the victim of political rhetoric in this debate.)

    But for that reason — not to mention that some obdurate lawmakers still deny the basic facts of climate change endorsed by the entire scientific community cling — the president is unlikely to find support in the U.S. Congress for the path we believe he must pursue.

    Indeed, some members of Congress have made their careers by obstructing just such measures. Sadly, many of those whose denials of the causes and impacts of climate change ring the loudest represent the coastal areas most vulnerable to rising seas, an act of self-immolation that’s impossible to understand.

    Obama’s climate change plan was heralded by these intransigent members as “job killing,” irresponsible and an abuse of executive fiat. (“War on coal” we’ll accept — the plan does take aim at coal, but 38% of greenhouse gas emissions are caused by power plants, most of which burn coal; the next biggest culprit is transportation, accounting for 31%. And these changes needn’t kill jobs — developing alternative energy technologies should provide new sources of employment.)

    As a steward of America and American resources, for Obama to sit this one out is unacceptable. And remember that late in the 2012 presidential campaign, it was Obama’s promise to deal with climate change that wooed some unsure voters to his side. So what’s a responsible president to do?

    Well, the president says he doesn’t need Congress. Rather, Obama says the broad reforms he envisions can be implemented by executive order, expanding the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s regulatory oversight of pollution to include carbon emissions, a use of the executive order is sure to prompt legal and political battles. It’s also worth nothing that Obama is the second American president to define the powers of the executive in broad terms, insisting that the office carries authority and autonomy traditionally not exercised by American presidents.

    Obama’s willingness to circumnavigate Congress is a regrettable necessity.

    In an ideal world, lawmakers would be swayed by the preponderance of scientific evidence, reach consensus and move to enact regulations that protect our environment. But that’s not what has happened. For a legislator to accept that climate change is happening has become a political, not scientific decision.

    And while we’re wary of the increasing power of the presidency, what could be a more appropriate use of that power than to turn the country from environmental devastation?

  • Insurers Given Severe Weather Warning

    Insurers Given Severe Weather Warning

    Posted on Jun 29, 2013
    Flying Lava Shark (CC BY 2.0)
    A scene from the wreckage of Hurricane Sandy in Ocean Grove, NJ.

    By Kieran Cooke, Climate News Network

    This piece first appeared at Climate News Network.

    LONDON—The global insurance industry’s own analysts warn that it faces potentially serious financial losses unless it plays an active role in urging governments to address climate-change factors such as greenhouse gas emissions.

    The Geneva Association, a leading international insurance thinktank that examines trends in the global insurance industry, has published a report this week that identifies “a significant upward trend in the insured losses caused by extreme weather events”.

    It warns that changes in climate mean insurance companies have entered a new, highly uncertain era, and must adapt to what it calls a “new normal” in assessing risks and setting pricing policies. Traditional ways of assessing such risks, based solely on analysing historical data, are “increasingly failing”.

    The report, Warming of the Oceans and Implications for the (Re)insurance Industry, says the world’s oceans have been warming significantly as the result of rising greenhouse gas emissions ? and it is this warming that is the key driver of global extreme events.

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    Ocean dynamics

    “Understanding the changes in ocean dynamics and the complex interactions between the ocean and the atmosphere is the key to understanding current changes in the distribution, frequency and intensity of global extreme events relevant to the insurance industry ? such as tropical cyclones, flash floods or extra-tropical storms,” the report says.

    The warming of the oceans means an “increased loss potential” for the insurance industry, the report says. It’s uncertain how the risk associated with the warming of the oceans and changes in climate will develop over time, but the report’s authors advocate moving from traditional data-based ways of assessing such risks to what they call predictive risk estimation methods, based on various modelling techniques.

    Such forecasting techniques are by no means perfect and can often give rise to more uncertainties ? although this does not mean they are not useful or scientifically sound. “It rather reflects the limits of the scientific understanding and the ability to predict extreme events in a chaotic system,” the report says.

    Increased risk

    The report’s authors issue a stark warning about insurance-related problems in parts of the world that are seeing increasing levels of risk matched with growing demands for insurance, and, at the same time, decreasing levels of self-protection. Such areas might be uninsurable, the report says. “Examples for markets with this potential are UK flood or Florida wind storm insurance.”

    The only way to make sure such regions remain insurable is immediately to put in place risk-mitigation measures says the report. The insurance industry should distribute high-quality information about risk associated with climate change, and should encourage adaptation through innovative product design.

    The report concludes: “These actions, alongside the support of science in tackling the major challenges in projecting the impacts of ocean warming and climate change more generally, will help the insurance industry avoid market failures and increase societal resilience.”