So, if we decide to generate 50% of our electrical energy with nuclear (at, say, an average 80% capacity factor), we would require this number of 1 GWe reactors:

50% of 39.0 trillion kWh is 19.5.

Let’s convert trillion kWh to GWh by multiplying it by one million:

We now have 19,500,000 GWh.

A 1 GWe nuclear plant at 80% capacity factor (CF) produces, on an annual basis:

1GWe x 0.80CF x 24 hrs x 365 days = 7,008 GWh.

Thus, we would need this number of reactors by 2040:

19,500,000 / 7,008 = 2,783.

2,783 – 186 = 2,597 new nuclear reactors.

If we have 30 years to build them, it would require the commissioning of:

2,597 / 30 = 87 nuclear reactors EVERY year for 30 CONSECUTIVE years.

And again, let’s remember that the above effort would only yield 50% of our global electricity and around 25% of our total energy consumption by 2040.

At the end of the day we have to differentiate what is possible, from what is probable.

The probability of this nuclear build up taking place by 2040 is, in my humble opinion, less than zero.

Feel free to add to the conversation.

Thank you.

EIA electricity projections from their latest report:

Notes:
1. By 2040, only ~50% of our energy consumption will be electricity.
2. There is no such thing as a global grid, so the real life implementation would be more complicated than pictured above.
3. Sure, many questions need to be answered, starting with determining if we even have the manufacturing capacity required to make such a ramp up.
4. Nuclear has a serious advantage over RE (sun and wind): it is baseload, reliable power.
5. Of the renewable power in 2040, fully 65% is estimated to be hydro.
6. Yes, there are reactors bigger and smaller than 1 GWe, we are considering all of them at 1 GWe to simplify.