The count in the Legislative Assembly is now largely complete. As of late Thursday evening, the Electoral Commission had “pushed the button” and finished the count in 41 out of 93 seats, including the key seats of Lismore (Nationals beat Greens), East Hills (Liberal beat Labor), Gosford and the Entrance (Labor beat Liberal), giving us a final figure of 54 Coalition, 34 Labor, 3 Greens and two independents.
In the Legislative Council, there has been substantial progress in counting since I last posted eight days ago.
I’ve produced a projection based on comparing the above-the-line votes counted in the first count and second count, and using this to project how the remaining below-the-line votes will flow.
| Candidate |
Party |
Votes |
Quotas |
Projected votes |
Projected quotas |
| Courtney Houssos |
Labor |
47,383 |
0.5699 |
167,269 |
0.8583 |
| Robert Borsak |
Shooters |
56,956 |
0.6851 |
164,310 |
0.8431 |
| Fred Nile |
Christian Dem |
54,144 |
0.6513 |
121,423 |
0.6230 |
| Peter Jones |
No Land Tax |
39,828 |
0.4791 |
80,485 |
0.4130 |
| Mark Pearson |
Animal Justice |
33,147 |
0.3987 |
75,323 |
0.3865 |
| Hollie Hughes |
Liberal |
50,453 |
0.6069 |
75,209 |
0.3859 |
| Shayne Higson |
Voluntary Euthanasia |
16,086 |
0.1935 |
39,637 |
0.2034 |
| Justin Field |
Greens |
25,472 |
0.3064 |
35,517 |
0.1822 |
The first four of these candidates will get elected. On this projection, No Land Tax is leading on primary votes in a very tight race with Animal Justice and the Liberal candidate, leaving open the possibility of preferences being decisive, and/or a court case challenging the result.
Below the fold, I’ll explain the progress of the count and how I came to this projection.
The Electoral Commission is planning to ‘push the button’ sometime between Wednesday and Saturday next week. Read more of this post
