Over the weekend, I have updated every district and region profile to include the final list of candidates. You can also view and download the full list of Legislative Assembly candidates, now including ballot order.
In addition, the Group Voting Tickets (GVTs) were released for the Legislative Council. These GVTs lay out how preferences will flow for a vote cast ‘above the line’ for any party or group in the Legislative Council election. The GVT system is what has allowed for ‘preference harvesting’ in past federal and Victorian elections, and is currently facing possible abolition at a federal level.
Unfortunately I have not had any time to analyse the GVTs, but three other analysts have produced useful information that you can use to get a better sense of the preference flows.
Antony Green at the ABC has published preference flows as PDFs, available on each of his regional profiles.
William Bowe at Poll Bludger has summarised where each group’s preferences will flow amongst the main contenders for each region.
Tom Clement at Geeklections has also produced a probability analysis of each region, which includes estimates of the possible votes and the likely seat results for each region based on the GVTs.
Please post any interesting findings in the comments below, and consider this an open thread for discussion of the Victorian election for the next few days. For the final two weeks of the campaign, I will be posting a regular post every few days for general discussion of the election campaign.
